Public Opinion and Elections - POpE

Reference of the Group:

GIUV2014-185

 
Description of research activity:
The research group in Public Opinión and Elections aims at analyzing, studying and finding solutions to all issues and questions related to electoral processes and/or the measurement and monitoring of public opinion, applying the most advanced quantitative techniques. The most relevant research fields of the group include (but are not limited to) the following: the generation of electoral predictions, inference of individual voting behavior, analysis of polls and surveys, the search of new methodological approaches to improve (reducing costs) the quality of sampling methods, semantic analysis of opinions and monitoring of the internet sentiment, the study of the consequences of non-response and of the biases introduced during the whole inference process, the solution to the gaps in the databases, the integration and pooling of local and global information to obtain multilevel responses, and the development of statistcal theory and methodology.The approach used in the research group in Public Opinión and Elections is open, not being limited by any particular methodological tendency, and makes extensive use of whatever sources of information. Thus, we use classical and Bayesian...The research group in Public Opinión and Elections aims at analyzing, studying and finding solutions to all issues and questions related to electoral processes and/or the measurement and monitoring of public opinion, applying the most advanced quantitative techniques. The most relevant research fields of the group include (but are not limited to) the following: the generation of electoral predictions, inference of individual voting behavior, analysis of polls and surveys, the search of new methodological approaches to improve (reducing costs) the quality of sampling methods, semantic analysis of opinions and monitoring of the internet sentiment, the study of the consequences of non-response and of the biases introduced during the whole inference process, the solution to the gaps in the databases, the integration and pooling of local and global information to obtain multilevel responses, and the development of statistcal theory and methodology.The approach used in the research group in Public Opinión and Elections is open, not being limited by any particular methodological tendency, and makes extensive use of whatever sources of information. Thus, we use classical and Bayesian techniques, we apply from simple linear regression models to complex approaches based on neural networks, wavelets or auto-binomial models, we use the spatial and/or temporal component of the data explicitly, we perform simulation via Markov chain Monte Carlo or directly by Monte Carlo methods, and we introduce in our models survey data, reported election results, news reports, internet messages and/or official statistics.The members of the group are open to working with other research groups, companies and institutions and encourage interested parties to contact us in order to explore possible avenues of collaboration.
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Web:
 
Scientific-technical goals:
  • To provide answers to queries relevant for public opinion and society and to develop new methodological issues to better exploit available data.
 
Research lines:
  • Election Forecasting . Aplicación y Elaboración de modelos para la predicción electoral
  • Ecological Inference . Descubrimiento de comportamientos individuales a partir de información agregada.
  • Surveys and Polls . Análisis y Elaboración de encuestas y sondeos de opinión
  • Social Networks . Desarrollos metodológicos y aplicaciones para la escucha activa en internet, propiciando la identificación de sentimientos y de autores que permita convertir los ingentes flujos de datos y opiniones en información.
  • Bias and Nonresponse . Desarrollos metodológicos y aplicaciones para la medición de la no-respuesta en las encuestas y para la corrección de sus efectos, en especial los sesgos que puede introducir en el proceso inferencial.
  • Multiple Imputation. Desarrollos metodológicos y de software para la búsqueda de soluciones al problema de la no-respuesta parcial en las encuestas y a los huecos en las bases de datos.
 
Group members:
Name Nature of participation Entity Description
José Manuel Pavía MirallesDirector-a UVEG-Valencia Catedràtic-a d'Universitat
Equip d'investigació
Bernardino Cabrer BorrásMembre UVEG-Valencia Professor-a Emèrit-a
Joaquín Martín CubasMembre UVEG-Valencia Titular d'Universitat
Vicenta Tasa FusterMembre UVEG-Valencia Professor-a Ajudant-a Doctor-a
Ernesto Veres FerrerMembre UVEG-Valencia Catedràtic-a d'Universitat
Elena Badal ValeroCol·laborador-a UVEG-Valencia Professor-a Ajudant-a Doctor-a
Beatriz Larraz IribasCol·laborador-a UCLM-Castilla-La Macha Professor-a Titular d'Universitat
Antonio Manuel López QuilezCol·laborador-a UVEG-Valencia Catedràtic-a d'Universitat
Francisco Marco SerranoCol·laborador-a GBR-GSM-London Lecturer
Equip de Treball
Laura Morales Díez de UlzurrunEquip de Treball GBR-ULC Professor-a Titular d'Universitat
Alfredo Vicente Rubio MataixEquip de Treball UVEG-Valencia Tècnic-a Mitjà UVEG